Cheshire Whole Systems Strategic Modelling Project

Older People

Go to the Model

Key Question

What are the broad capacity requirements for long term care and social support for older people in each District in the light of underlying socio-demographic trends and key service developments, particularly in extra care housing ?

Supplementary Questions

  • What impact will the further development of intermediate tier services have?
  • What levels of mental illness might be expected within the older population in relation to current mental health specialist capacity ?
  • What might be the effect of a greater investment in preventative services ?
  • How will additional support to carers impact on capacity requirements ?
  • What implications or outputs can be derived that will inform the development of day care services ?

Approach and Underlying Concepts

The initial approach is to establish the core 'dynamics' of the system under investigation, particularly the boundaries of the system and making sure that key questions can be addressed. Basic demographic and other relevant data is then used to explore the model structure and behaviour, and to help identify other elements that are required in the model.

The model is based on a series of levels, and the goal is to slow the progression from one level to another. Different locations which provide care will have different consequences for the progression between levels of need. In addition, certain key developments in extra care housing are 'hard-wired' into the model, whilst still allowing for additional strategies to be explored.

'Hypothesis'

That people can be maintained for longer at a lower level of need if they are enabled to retain their independence in high quality accommodation (with any relevant assistive technology) if this care is provided in clusters of extra care housing compared to the alternative of remaining in sometimes inadequate housing, being at risk of becoming isolated and then progressing more quickly to residential care, where they are again at risk of becoming more dependant and therefore more likely to progress to higher levels of need.